All predictions

Premier League · Saturday 12 September, 15:00

Aston VillavNottingham Forest

Published before kickoff · model v2 · View the GitHub record

Full-time result

Home
49%
Draw
26%
Away
25%

Total goals

Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%

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Estimate updated Sunday 6 September · updated daily at 03:00 UK time

Match preview

AI-generated

Aston Villa are the model’s favourite, although the 49% home-win probability leaves considerable room for the draw at 26% and a Nottingham Forest win at 25%. Villa ended last season with consecutive victories, winning 2-1 away to Manchester City before a 4-2 home success over Liverpool. Forest’s final six league matches included three wins, two draws and one defeat, with away victories at Chelsea and Sunderland. Villa are also unbeaten in the three most recent meetings, winning twice before April’s 1-1 draw. The total-goals forecast is narrowly tilted towards over 2.5 goals at 51%, compared with 49% for under 2.5.

Written by a language model from the numbers on this page and historical results only.

Probabilities come from a market-anchored statistical ensemble. See the methodology for how they are produced and verified.