Premier League · Monday 14 September, 20:00

Leeds UnitedvNewcastle United

Published before kickoff · model v2 · View the GitHub record ↗

Full-time result

Home

38%

Draw

27%

Away

35%

Total goals

Over 2.5 goals

55%

Under 2.5 goals

45%

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Estimate updated Sunday 6 September · updated daily at 03:00 UK time

Match preview

AI-generated

The model sees this as finely balanced, with Leeds United narrowly favoured at 38%, Newcastle United close behind at 35% and the draw at 27%. Leeds ended last season with a 3-0 defeat at West Ham, but their previous five matches brought three wins and two draws. They also won each of their final three home games in that sequence. Newcastle’s last three away matches produced one draw and two defeats, without an away win. Recent meetings have varied sharply, from Newcastle’s 4-3 win in January to a 0-0 draw last August. The total-goals lean is over 2.5 at 55%, compared with 45% for under 2.5.

Written by a language model from the numbers on this page and historical results only.

Probabilities come from a market-anchored statistical ensemble. See the methodology for how they are produced and verified.